Medical racetrack, where is the opportunity for the next 10 years?

The huge potential consumer market with a population of 1.4 billion, the increasing health needs of more than 300million elderly people, and the health management demands of 500million people with chronic diseases... The big health industry is ushering in the most considerable window of development.

In view of the pressure of medical insurance and the impact of aging population structure, the future prospect of the medical sector deserves our attention, especially the main line of "consumption + innovation". Under the promotion of centralized purchase and normalization, the common imitation medicine and equipment has entered the era of low profit. The innovative medicine, equipment and vaccine businesses need to continuously make up for the life cycle of the old industry through the research and development of new products. In addition, consumer healthcare is a sector that can really give sustainable value.

01 medical cosmetology

The scale may reach 152.4 billion yuan in 2022

In 2015, plastic surgery in China accounted for more than 16% of the global total, becoming the third largest cosmetic surgery country in the world. Women are the main force of medical beauty, accounting for 83% of consumers, and the trend of younger age of medical beauty consumers is obvious.

From 2009 to 2015, China's medical cosmetology maintained a compound annual growth rate of 15%, of which the growth rate of non-surgical medical cosmetology was 18.9% higher than that of the whole industry, and the growth rate of surgical medical cosmetology was only 10.7%. China's medical beauty service industry is highly fragmented, with more than 24000 medical beauty institutions and clinics.

China's medical beauty service market has been in a state of rapid growth from 2016 to 2019, but it was seriously affected by the epidemic in 2019. The market size of China's medical beauty service industry was adjusted back to 117.6 billion yuan in 2020. It is expected that the market size of China's medical beauty service industry will reach 152.4 billion yuan in 2022.

02 health tourism

The market scale will reach 100 billion in the next five years

Health tourism accounts for about 1% of the total tourism transaction scale. In 2015, the total transaction scale of China's tourism market was 4130billion yuan, and the transaction scale of health tourism was about 40billion yuan.

At this stage, the health tourism market has a good market development environment and huge development space. In the next five years, the market scale of health tourism will show a rapid growth trend, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to reach about 20%. In 2020, the market scale will be about 100billion yuan. As a composite industry of the great health industry and tourism industry, health tourism deserves special attention.

03 pension industry

In 2050, the market scale will reach 106trillion yuan

In February this year, the State Council just issued the national plan for the development of the cause of aging and the elderly care service system during the 14th five year plan (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"). According to the report on the development of China's aging industry, from 2014 to 2050, the consumption scale of China's elderly population will increase from 4trillion yuan to about 106trillion yuan. The market presents a blue ocean, covering not only traditional fields such as medicine, real estate and finance, but also emerging scientific and technological fields such as robots, wearable devices and brain computer interfaces.

04 pharmaceutical e-commerce

Compared with the United States, the permeability has greater room to rise

In the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical e-commerce platform belongs to the pharmaceutical circulation link, connecting pharmaceutical enterprises, dealers, retail pharmacies, hospitals and terminal groups. From the perspective of pharmaceutical enterprises, through pharmaceutical e-commerce, we can directly or indirectly contact with and end consumer groups. The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform is reshaping the pharmaceutical circulation value chain, which can solve the problem of opaque drug price information and break the barriers of regional restrictions on drug sales.

In recent years, with the gradual liberalization of relevant national policies, pharmaceutical e-commerce has entered a period of rapid growth. According to the data, the scale of China's pharmaceutical e-commerce has reached 195.6 billion yuan in 2020, and the transaction scale may reach 226billion yuan in 2021. There will be a major breakthrough in 2022.

From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of China's pharmaceutical e-commerce market is increasing year by year, from 2.9% in 2015 to 4.9% in 2019. According to this calculation, the penetration rate of China's pharmaceutical e-commerce market will reach 7.2% by 2022. However, compared with the 33.3% penetration rate of online drug purchase in the United States, there is a large room for China's pharmaceutical e-commerce to rise.

05 health management

Over 50billion market vacancy to be filled

The potential planning of China's health management market is about 60billion yuan, but only about 3billion yuan has been completed at this stage. More than 5million market vacancies need to be filled, and the future development space of the health management industry is huge. Among them, physical examination center, in vitro diagnosis, trace element detection, reproductive health, health preservation of traditional Chinese medicine, maternity center and rehabilitation center have become the fields with the most investment potential.

Health management is in the stage of market cultivation, with low market awareness. Some health management concepts can not be generally accepted by the public. Generally speaking, the profitability of the industry is low, but the profitability of health examination and other segments is good. With the deepening of people's understanding of health management, a huge market will rise. The threshold of health management is moderate, and there are no strict requirements on capital and technology. Enterprises should deploy as soon as possible.

The next decade will still be a decade of continuous acceleration of medical innovation. New technologies are emerging. From the perspective of talents, more and more cross-border experts engaged in computer, materials, instruments and other fields have entered the medical field. When cutting-edge technologies are applied in a new field, they often generate huge energy. Many investors said that the medical track has a long snow slope, and there will be a return of value in the long run. Whether from the perspective of enterprises or investors, the future prospects are very good. Short term foam and fluctuations do not affect the long-term trend.